Development and validation of a risk score for chronic kidney disease in HIV infection using prospective cohort data from the D:A:D study. PLoS Medicine
Mocroft et al. developed and externally validated a risk score for predicting chronic kidney disease (CKD) at 5 years in HIV-positive individuals from the D:A:D study. Incidence of CKD was 6.2/1’000 person-years of follow-up. The authors included 9 factors which were identified to predict CKD in their risk score model and defined three risk groups (i.e., low, medium and high risk of CKD development). The chance to develop CKD increased significantly by higher risk group as the number needed to harm (NNH) when starting potentially nephrotoxic antiretroviral drugs decreased (739 in the low risk, 88 in the medium risk, and 9 in the high risk group).
These findings highlight the need for monitoring, screening and chronic disease prevention to minimize the risk of HIV-positive individuals developing CKD associated diseases.