A method to estimate the size and characteristics of HIV-positive populations using an individual-based stochastic simulation model. Epidemiology
Nakagawa et al. on behalf of EuroCoord developed an individual-based simulation model to estimate the size and characteristics of HIV-positive populations. The method was applied to data on men who have sex with men (MSM) in the UK and to pseudo data to assess the impact of different levels of availability of data. By 2013, an estimated 48,310 MSM were living with HIV in the UK, of them 22% MSM were undiagnosed and 23% were not in care. Of all MSM living with HIV, 66% were receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) and more than half of them (62%) were thought to have suppressed viral load. Of the 40,530 MSM in need of treatment (defined as people on ART and people ART-naïve with CD4 count